Truth, Hubris, and Democracy

Being pretty sure of yourself is pretty bad for democracy, argue the authors of a recent study

Image credit: DALL-E 2

TLDR: Liberal intellectuals and conservative anti-intellectuals are both increasingly sure of themselves. That certainty, which a group of political scientists call “epistemic hubris” has no redeeming democratic qualities.

The big picture: In an in-depth, survey-based study, a group of political scientists identify some worrying trends:

• Americans on the right and left are pretty confident about their political opinions, even on issues that remain unsettled among experts.

• On the political left, unwarranted certainty (epistemic hubris) is associated with intellectualism as an identity “marked by ruminative habits and

  learning for its own sake.”

• On the political right, unwarranted certainty is associated with anti-intellectualism as an attitude (an “affect”).

That kind of over-confidence may be helpful in launching a new business or launching a long-shot campaign for political office, but it is a serious obstacle to democratic deliberation.

The bottom line: “In contemporary American culture, the authors quip, “the three little words in shortest supply may not be ‘I love you,’ but ‘I don’t know.’”

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Go Deeper: Read more about how the authors decided what contentious claims lacked clear scientific consensus in either direction:

• “If unchecked, the US national debt will cause major economic damage”

• “If college were free, there would be much less economic inequality”

• “Gun control reduces mass shootings”

• “The quality of health care is better in many ways in the US than in Canada”

• “Unauthorized immigration hurts the American economy”

• “Human life begins at conception”

• “Significant increases in the minimum wage reduce poverty”

• “Charter schools harm regular public schools”

• “When it comes to success, grit is more important than luck”